Q2 data: Where smart money is moving in media

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The Speed Read

• Snapchat's Target Cost Bidding drives 30-40% ROAS improvements

• Pinterest momentum showing subtle signs of deceleration

• Attribution scrutiny returns as macro pressure mounts

• Platform diversification creates unexpected arbitrage opportunities

This Week's Analysis

The Platform Performance Paradox

When fear drives better opportunities than confidence

Fresh research from Edgewater reveals a fascinating contradiction in Q2 platform performance. While economic uncertainty pushes brands toward "safe harbour" spending on Meta and Google, the real opportunities are emerging on platforms everyone's abandoning.

The data tells two distinct stories that every performance marketer needs to understand.

Snapchat's Quiet Revolution

Target Cost Bidding isn't just another feature update—it's fundamentally changing the economics of Snapchat advertising. Our analysis of agency feedback shows:

What's Working:

• 30-40% year-over-year spend increases for early adopters

• CPMs dropping to half previous levels in some cases

• 30% better conversion rates vs. legacy campaigns

• 80% of brands testing TCB report positive impact

The Insight: TCB algorithms are discovering underutilized inventory that manual bidding missed entirely. Combined with 7/0 optimization improvements, Snapchat has quietly rebuilt its direct response infrastructure while most brands weren't paying attention.

"Out of the brands that I've heard implement TCB, 80% say there is a positive impact, the other 20% say 'eh'. Snapchat has been incredibly bullish with TCB and trying to get brands to adopt and test it because of the success they are seeing."

Pinterest's Momentum Question

After two years of Performance+ driving consistent growth, Pinterest is showing subtle signs of deceleration. Not in ad tech capability—P+ catalog campaigns and RoAS bidding remain strong—but in market adoption and scaling appetite.

The Warning Signs:

• Fewer new brands testing Pinterest for direct response

• Existing advertisers showing less appetite to scale

• Increased scrutiny on Pinterest's 1P reporting

• Attribution questions are resurgent during budget pressure

The Pattern: This mirrors every Pinterest growth cycle. When budgets are abundant, view-through conversions look attractive. When CFOs start asking questions, those same numbers face skepticism.

The Measurement Reality Check

Both platform stories reveal the same underlying issue: attribution infrastructure separates winners from losers during economic uncertainty.

Brands questioning Pinterest attribution aren't doing so because performance declined—they're doing it because they never properly validated the numbers when times were good. The same dynamic affects every secondary platform when pressure mounts.

The Competitive Divide:

• Brands with solid measurement infrastructure: Maintaining and growing platform diversification
  

• Brands without measurement sophistication: Defaulting to Meta/Google concentration

The Arbitrage Opportunity

By the Numbers

When fear drives platform concentration, smart money goes contrarian:

• Snapchat CPMs: Down significantly as competition decreases

• Pinterest inventory: More available as brands retreat

• Meta/Google auctions: Intensifying as budgets concentrate

• Secondary platform performance: Improving due to reduced competition

Here’s what that looks like…

1. Test while others retreat: Use fear-driven exodus to access cheaper inventory

2. Build measurement infrastructure: Validate platform performance with incrementality testing

3. Scale where competition decreases: Capture share on platforms others abandon

4. Maintain attribution rigour: Ensure your data withstands CFO scrutiny

Implementation Priority:

• Immediate: Test Snapchat TCB with proven creative at small scale

• Short-term: Validate Pinterest attribution against MMM/holdout tests

• Long-term: Build platform performance measurement that survives economic cycles

Quick Takes: What This Means

For Brands: Your measurement sophistication determines your competitive advantage when budgets tighten. Build it before you need it.

For Investors: Portfolio companies with diversified platform strategies and solid attribution are better positioned for sustainable growth.

Last Word

"The best arbitrage opportunities happen when fear overrides data. While competitors optimize for comfort, smart operators capture underpriced, high-quality traffic on platforms others abandon."

The question isn't whether platform performance cycles exist—they always have.

The question is whether you'll use them strategically or let emotions drive your media allocation.

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